198例SARS转归病例特征分析  

The epidemiological characteristics of 198 patients with Severe acute respiratory Syndrome(SARS)

作　　者：孙海龙[1] 冯丹[2] 范国英[1] 刘玮[1] 曹务春[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事医学科学院微生物流行病研究所,北京市100071 [2]北京军医学院,北京市100071

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2003年第5期559-561,共3页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划 (863计划 )资助项目 (2 0 0 3AA2 0 840 6)

摘　　要：目的　通过对 1 98例转归SARS病例的分析 ,了解SARS病例的流行特征以及影响转归的因素。　方法　采用病例调查和电话回访等方式 ,收集SARS病例的资料 ,运用SPSS、Excel进行统计分析 ,并建立转归影响因素的Lo gistic回归模型。　结果　 1 98例SARS患者中治愈 1 79例 ,死亡 1 9例 ,病死率为 9 6 0 % ,患者年龄为 9～ 79岁 ,男性占56 6 7% ,女性占 4 3 4 3% ,医务人员占 37 88% ,所有病例中 ,平均转归时间为 30 59d(痊愈病例为 31 92d ,死亡病例为1 8 2 1d) ,有明显的家庭和医院聚集性。应用Logistic回归分析影响转归的因素 ,模型为 :Y =[1 +e( 4 95 8-0 10 7Xl+0 0 65X2 ) ]-1(X1-年龄、X2 -住院时间 ) ,年龄越大 ,住院时间越短 ,死亡的危险越高。结论　密切接触是SARS的主要传播途径 ,发病以家庭和医院聚集性多见 ,影响转归的因素主要有年龄、住院时间等。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and to analyze the factors that might be related to the prognosis of the disease Methods Field survey was conducted on the SARS patients who had recovered or died Date was analyzed using SPSS and Excel software The logistic regression model was established to analyze the factors that might be related to the prognosis of the disease Results A total of 198 clinically diagnosed SARS patients was enrolled in this study,in which 19 had died,with a fatality rate was 9 60% The patients' age ranged form 9 to 79 years 56 67% were male,and 43 43% were female 37 88% of the subjects were hospital staffs;The average hospitalization time was 30 59 days(31 90 days for convalescent patients and 20 00 days for death patients). The aggregation of the disease is common The logistic regression model to analyze the factor s that might be related to the prognosis was:Y=[1+e (4 958-0 107X l+0 065X 2) ] -1 (X 1-age?X 2-admission) Conclusion Close contact was the most important transmission route of SARS,the family and hospital aggregation was the main characteristics of SARS,Age and hospitalization period were the two factors influencing the prognosis of the disease

关 键 词：SARS 转归病例 特征分析 非典型肺炎 流行病学 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]