深圳水库降水周期及趋势分析  

Analysis of Shenzhen Reservoir Precipitation Period and Trend

作　　者：蔡继 丁华龙 董四方[3] 张云[4] 

机构地区：[1]深圳市防汛防旱防风指挥部办公室,广东深圳518036 [2]深圳市水务规划设计院,广东深圳518036 [3]水利部水资源管理中心,北京100053 [4]中山大学,广东广州510275

出　　处：《人民珠江》2015年第6期39-43,共5页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大国际合作和重点项目(51210013)

摘　　要：降水的周期、趋势及变异研究对区域水资源管理具有重要意义。以深圳水库站1960-2013年降水量数据为基础,采用Morlet小波分析、滑动平均法、线性倾向估计法及WMP突变检验法,对深圳水库年、汛期和非汛期降水量的周期、趋势及变异点进行分析。结果表明年和汛期降水量存在6、10、17 a的主周期,非汛期降水量存在6 a的主周期;年和汛期降水量呈增加趋势,平均增长率分别是29.3 mm/10 a和27.7 mm/10 a,非汛期降水量呈微弱减少趋势;年和汛期降水量在1992年发生不显著性突变,非汛期降水量在2001年发生不显著性突变。The understanding of the precipitation period, trend and variation is very important for regional water resources management.Based on the annual precipitation data of Shenzhen Reservoir Station from 1960 to 2013, the paper has adopted the Morelet Wavelet Analysis, moving- average method, the linear trend estimation and WMP mutation test to analyze the period, trend and change point of the annual, flood season and non- flood season precipitation. The result shows that the major period with 6 years, 9 years and 17 years exists in the annual precipitation and flood season precipitation; the main period with 6 years exists in the non- flood season. The annual and flood season precipitation shows an increasing trend, their average rates of growth are 29. 3mm /10 a and 27. 7mm /10a; and non- flood season precipitation shows a weak decreasing trend. The annual and flood season precipitation was not in significant mutation in 1992, and non- flood season was not in significant mutation in 2001.

关 键 词：降水量 MORLET小波分析 WMP 周期 趋势 变异 深圳水库 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]