捕获-再捕获分析及其在伤害控制中应用  

Application of capture-recapture method on injury control

作　　者：李丽萍[1] 王生[2] 

机构地区：[1]汕头大学医学院伤害预防研究中心,515031 [2]北京大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2003年第9期835-838,共4页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：广东省科技厅重大科技攻关项目 (2 0 0 2 13 3 10 0 2 )

摘　　要：目的　探讨几种捕获 再捕获分析方法间的关系 ,推进该法在医学尤其是在伤害研究中的广泛应用。方法　将缺失估算法与超几何分布、比例法等进行比较 ,进一步研究缺失估算法与超几何分布法间的关系 ,以及比例法与超几何分布特点 ,且以医学实例介绍各种方法。结果　缺失估算法与超几何分布法估算结果相同 ,由超几何分布可导出缺失估算法公式 ;伤害人群分布不服从负二项分布 ,比例法与超几何分布估算范围不同。结论　缺失估算法与超几何分布可任选一种方法 ,而超几何分布法计算较简便 ;比例法与超几何分布法估算范围不同 ,需根据具体条件选用。Objective To explore relationships among several capture-recapture methods to be used in injury studies. Methods Comparing the method on the estimation number of missed cases with supergeometric distribution and proportional methods and study the relationship between the three methods. Results Results from estimation method for number of missed cases and supergeometric distribution were identical while the formula of estimation method for number of missed cases could be induced from one of supergeometric distribution formula.The distribution of injured population did not belong to the negative binomial distribution.The estimation range was not the same between proportional method and supergeometric distribution. Conclusions Either supergeometric distribution or estimation method for number of missed cases could be chosen, but the former was simple in calculation.Considering the estimating range was not the same between supergeometric distribution and proportional method, conditions for application must be considered during implementation.

关 键 词：捕获-再捕获分析 伤害控制 应用 缺失估算法 超几何分布法 比例法 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]