考虑季节变化的风暴增水随机统计分析  

Statistical analysis of storm surge elevation considering seasonal variation

作　　者：董胜[1] 宋艳[1] 杨志 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266071 [2]上海交通建设总承包公司,上海201208

出　　处：《海洋工程》2003年第3期68-72,共5页The Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40076028);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金资助

摘　　要：以青岛大港水文观测站30年的风暴增水过程为例,按照年、季、月分别建立不同的样本,以此提出新的概率统计模式,对年极值法和过阈法的计算结果进行了比较讨论,说明风暴潮季节变化考虑与否,重现值的计算误差是存在的,而且以往算法得到的重现值偏低。最后给出了青岛海岸地区考虑季节变化的风暴增水重现值。Thirty years of storm surge data measured from Qingdao Dagang Tidal Station are used to set up different statistical samples according to time division, such as year, season or month. By considering seasonal variation of storm surges, a new statistical model is put forward to compute return values. Calculation results obtained with annual maxima method and peak over threshold method are compared and discussed. The error in the calculation of return values can be obtained by analyzing seasonal storm surge data. It appears that the assumption leads to an underestimation of return values. Return values of storm surge elevation in Qingdao coastal area are given with a new model for engineering design.

关 键 词：风暴增水 Poisson-Gumbel分布 年极值法 过阈法 季节变化 

分 类 号：U631[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]