城市燃气负荷非平稳时序预测模型的研究  

Study on Load Forecast of City Gas with Unstable Time Series Model

作　　者：焦文玲[1] 赵林波[2] 秦裕琨[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150090 [2]东北林业大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《煤气与热力》2003年第8期451-453,458,共4页Gas & Heat

基　　金：哈尔滨工业大学校基金资助(HIT.2002.65)

摘　　要：以时间序列分析理论为基础,针对城市燃气负荷具有非平稳时间序列的特点,介绍了非平稳时序模型建模流程。提出了基于Box和长自回归白噪化的改进建模方法,建立了城市燃气负荷用Fourier级数描述周期项及AR模型描述平稳项的非平稳时序模型。Based on theory of time series analysis, this the sis introduces establishing the unstable time series model process with the properties of unstable time series for the city gas load, and puts forth the improvement method of forming model on a foundation of Box and long autoregression of white noise, and establishes unstable time series model for the city gas load with Fourier series model to describe the cyclical variation regularity and AR model to describe the stable time series.

关 键 词：城市 燃气负荷 非平稳时序模型 时间序列 

分 类 号：TU996.3[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]