利率运行趋势分析  

An Analysis of the Trend of Interest Rate

作　　者：赵迎琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人寿保险公司资金运用中心,北京100032

出　　处：《河南金融管理干部学院学报》2003年第5期36-38,共3页Journal of Henan College of Financial Management Cadres

摘　　要：利率运行趋势的判断可从真实利率影响因素和名义利率影响因素两个角度进行分析。通过对影响真实利率的居民消费倾向、企业利润率、GDP增长因素和影响名义利率的货币政策、金融市场条件、预期通货膨胀率等因素的分析 ,可以得出 :2 0 0 3年 - 2 0 0 4年前三季度 ,消费价格的上涨幅度预计将在 1.5 %左右 ,利率整体水平仍将保持低位运行 ,利率上调的可能性不大。We can judge the trend of interest rate from two aspects: factual rate and nominal rate. The factors that influence factual rate include resident consumption tendency, enterprises profit margin and GDP increase. And monetary policy, financial market conditions and prospective inflation rate may influence nominal rate. By analyzing all the above factors, we can draw the conclusion: during the 2003 to the first three quarters of 2004, the CPI will go up around 1.5%, the general level of interest rate still may run at the current low level. That is to say, the possibility of interest rate's climbing is very small.

关 键 词：名义利率 货币政策 中国 金融市场 通货膨胀 消费倾向 资金价格 股权市场 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学] F822.0