基于气象因子的中长期水文预报方法研究  

Study of MidtoLongterm Hydrological Forecasting Based on Weather Factors

作　　者：张利平[1] 王德智[1] 夏军[1] 牛存稳[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2003年第3期4-6,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-SW-317);国家自然科学基金重大项目(50099620)。

摘　　要：气象因子与径流序列在物理成因上有着比较密切的关系。基于此,对气象因子与径流的关联性进行空间上的变异分析。先对气象因子进行R型主成分分析,然后选择出影响径流量的主因子,计算因子得分,通过聚类分析进行径流量的定性预报。实践证明,此种方法有很好的可靠性,值得应用和推广。Hydrological series is physically effected by weather factors. This article attempts to analyze the relation between runoff series and weather factors in space variation.a midtolongterm hydrological forecasting model based on weather factors is proposed.First,main factor analysis is carried out with weather factors,and they are clustered,The model was tested by using the yearly data of runoff series at Baishan Reservoir.The result shows that this model can get a better forecasting effect.

关 键 词：中长期水文预报 气象因子 径流序列 主成分 

分 类 号：P338.2[天文地球—水文科学]