干旱对北方冬小麦产量影响的风险评估  

Risk assessment of drought effect on yield of winter wheat in northern China

作　　者：王素艳[1] 霍治国[1] 李世奎[1] 卢志光[2] 庄立伟[1] 侯婷婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100094

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2003年第3期118-125,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2001BA509B14)

摘　　要：对非灌溉与灌溉两种不同的背景,以水分平衡原理求得的自然水分亏缺率为轴线,以风险评估技术方法为核心,分别从基于实际产量和生产潜力的两种不同途径,研究了北方地区干旱对冬小麦产量影响的风险水平。建立了基于灌溉地区的冬小麦实际产量与自然水分亏缺率的相关关系,根据其敏感性的不同,确定出A、B两类不同干旱年型的自然水分亏缺率及其相应的实际减产率指标。结果表明:(1)水分对生产潜力的影响各地差别较大,光温生产潜力的减产率和气候生产潜力的减产率在陕西、山西和河南3省的概率分布呈由南向北增大的趋势,而在山东呈由南向北、由东向西增大的趋势,且整个北方冬麦区呈现较好的连片性和区域性。(2)根据自然水分亏缺率,划分出5种干旱年型:轻旱、中旱、重旱、严重干旱和极端干旱,与其相应的缺水率分别为<20％,20～30％,30％～40％,40％～70％和>70％。A类不同干旱年型的实际减产率分别为<9％,9％～12%,12％～14％,14％～21％和>21％,该类指标适用于山东东部及中部的部分地区、陕西南部渭河一带、河北中部的部分地区;B类不同干旱年型的实际减产率分别为<9％,9％～15％,15％～21％,21％～40％和>40％,该类指标适用于本区的其它地区。Taking irrigation and non-irrigation as two different backgrounds, the risk levels of effect of drought on yield of winter wheat are studied by two methods based on actual yields and productive potentialities respectively. Correlations between actua1 yields of winter wheat and natural moisture deficiency rates in irrigated areas are estab- lished. Because of the difference of sensitivity,two types(A and B) of indices on natural moisture deficiency rates and the corresponding actual yield reduction rates are set up. The results indicate: (1) Effect of moisture on pro- ductive potentialities varies greatly with areas, the risk probabilities of yield reduction rates of both photo-tempera- ture and climatic productive potentialities has increasing tendency from south to north in Shaannxi, Shanxi and Henan, but in Shandong, it increases from south to north, from east to west gradually, and in the whole winter wheat producing areas of northern China, it has the character of regionalization. (2) According to the natural moisture deficiency rate, five types of drought year are classified: light, moderate, heavy, serious heavy and ultra-heavy, and the moisture deficiency rates corresponding to them are<20%,20%～30%,30%～40%,40%～70% and>% respectively. The yield reduction rates of type A of drought year are<9%,9%～12%, 12%～14%, 14%～21% and>% respectively, and these figures are suitable for the east and some areas of midst in Shandong, south near Weihe River in Shaanxi and some areas of midst in Hebei; and type B of drought year are<9%,9%～15%,15% ～21%,21%～40% and>% respectively, which are suitable for other areas in northern China.

关 键 词：干旱 冬小麦 产量 风险评估 自然水分亏缺率 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学] S423