灌溉降低华北冬小麦干旱减产的风险评估研究  

Action of irrigation on decreasing yield reduction due to drought:a risk assessment of winter wheat in North China Plain

作　　者：薛昌颖[1] 霍治国[1] 李世奎[1] 卢志光[2] 毛飞[1] 庄立伟[1] 王素艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100094

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2003年第3期131-136,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2001 BA509B14)

摘　　要：从冬小麦生育期水分供需平衡的关系出发,建立了其缺水率模式。采用风险分析技术与方法,基于华北平原河北省及京津地区代表站点近40a(1961～2000年)冬小麦供需水的有关资料,估算了冬小麦全生育期在不同灌溉条件下,不同干旱年型不同缺水率出现的概率,分析了灌溉可降低的冬小麦干旱减产的风险水平。结果表明:这些地区生育期内的自然降水和底墒水只能满足冬小麦全生育期需水的1/3～2/3。如果没有灌溉,冬小麦全生育期缺水率20％以上出现的概率大都在80％以上,缺水率30％～40％的重旱年出现的概率高达30％;随着灌水次数的增加,相应干旱减产的风险水平随之降低。如果在缺水的关键期适当补充3次水,总量在2025m^3/hm^2左右,则缺水率≥10％的风险概率可降到10％以下,而大部分地区基本上可满足水分的需求;为节约用水和提高水分利用效率,除严重干旱年外,大部分地区一般只需灌3次水便可满足冬小麦稳产、高产的水分需求。Based on the balance requirement of water demand and supply for winter wheat in its growth period, the water deficiency rate model is established. Using risk analysis technique and the data relative to water demand and supply of winter wheat from the 40 representative stations in Hebei Province and Beijing-Tianjin area of North Chi- na Plain, the water deficiency rate probabilities for different irrigation conditions and types of drought year are eval- uated, and the decrease of risk level of winter wheat yield reduction is analyzed. The results show that the natural precipitation and land moisture in growth period of winter wheat is only 1/3～2/3 of its water demand. If there is no irrigation, the probability of water deficiency rate larger than 20% will be over 80%, and the occurrence proba- bility of serious drought years with 30%～40% of water deficiency rate will be up to 30%. Along with increase in times of irrigation, the relative risk level of reduction of yield decrease. If three times of water supplement can be implemented timely with total amound of 2025 m^2/hm^2 or so, the risk probability of water deficiency rate larger than 10% will not exceed 10% and the water demand for greater part of the area will be satisfied. For saving water use and raising efficiency of water utilization, stable and high yield of winter wheat can be realized through three times of irrigation in greater part of the area except for the serious drought years.

关 键 词：冬小麦 华北平原 干旱 缺水率 灌溉 风险概率 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学] S474.2