一种改进的考虑环流特征的MOS预报方法  

An Improved Method MOS Forecast Based on Circulation Characteristics

作　　者：杞明辉[1] 肖子牛[1] 晏红明[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《高原气象》2003年第4期405-409,共5页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局重点项目"逐级指导预报产品研究";云南科技攻关项目(2001NG43)资助

摘　　要：利用一种可以考虑天气环流形势场特征的MOS预报因子处理方法进行预报因子的处理,以T106L19模式的预报产品为基础建立云南省32个基本站点的降水和气温预报方程,并与不考虑天气形势场的因子所建立的MOS方程的预报结果进行对比。结果表明,MOS预报的结果对预报因子的变化很敏感,在考虑天气形势后的MOS预报对云南各站点的降水和气温的预报效果均有显著的改进,说明MOS预报因子的处理方法和选取对改进MOS预报效果具有重要的意义。A new method of forming MOS(Model Output Statistic)forecast factors to improved prediction accuracy was given in this paper. The result show that the method can significantly improve the MOS forecast skill for precipitation and temperature of 32 stations in Yunnan. But the MOS forecasts for precipitation are more skillful than that for temperature in Yunnan. At the same time, the test display prediction accuracy of MOS is sensitive to the forecast factor select. And considering circulation background and making a optimal forecast factors is very important to improve the performance of MOS forecast.

关 键 词：MOS预报 环流特征 预报因子 数值天气预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]