经济周期态势与条件波动性的非对称性关联分析  

An Analysis of the Relationship between the Asymmetry of Economic Cycle and the Asymmetry of Condition Fluctuation

作　　者：刘金全[1] 张海燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心

出　　处：《管理世界》2003年第9期18-26,共9页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(02BJY019);教育部重大项目(2000ZDXM790009)和(02JAZJD790007)资助

摘　　要：我国的经济周期形态已经出现了新的态势 ,在经济周期分界模糊和波动性降低的同时 ,主要宏观经济变量波动性的关联和反应方式也体现出一定程度的非对称性 ,显示出我国经济增长过程中市场规模和体制转变的动态性和阶段性特征。经济周期形态和波动性模式的改变 ,说明我国经济增长过程已经从经济“软着陆”阶段逐渐转变为经济“软扩张”阶段 ,方向性、规则性和阶段性更为明确的宏观经济政策将促使我国经济继续保持稳定的快速增长 ,并在全面建设小康社会的历史进程中构筑和形成我国经济的第一轮增长型长波的主体。A new situation has appeared in China's economic cycle: while demarcation line between economic cycles has been blurred and the fluctuation has decreased, the asymmetry has also occurred in the linkage between and expressions of the fluctuations of main macroeconomic variables, demonstrating the dynamics in nature and phasing in character in terms of market scale and system transformation in the process of China's economic growth.The change in economic cycle patterns and in undulation mode show that China's economic growth has step by step come from the stage of ' soft landing' to that of ' soft expansion', and that macroeconomic policies with clearer orientation, regulation and phasing will stimulate China's sustained, steady and rapid economic growth, and erect and form the main body of the long wave of China's first round of economic development.

关 键 词：经济周期形态 经济增长 市场规模 经济波动 宏观经济政策 小康社会 小康建设 波动性 非对称性 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]