基于中国气候变化区划的1951-2010年暴雨统计分析  

Statistical Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Based on China′s Climate Change Regionalization from 1951 to 2010

作　　者：孔锋[1,2,3] 吕丽莉[1,2] 方建[4] 方佳毅[3,5,6] 王一飞[1] 刘凡[3,5,6] 应卓容 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局发展研究中心,北京100081 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [4]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,武汉430079 [5]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [6]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2017年第5期189-196,203,共9页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目"地表过程模型与模拟"(41621061)

摘　　要：采用659个气象观测站日值降水数据计算了中国年际和年代际暴雨雨量和暴雨雨日,然后基于中国气候变化区划(1961—2010年)对中国暴雨进行了分区统计。结果表明:在中国气候变化区划降水呈增加和减少的区域,绝大多数的暴雨呈现相应的年际和年代际的增加和减少趋势。但也有在降水趋势减少的I1东北—华北暖干趋势带的小兴安岭—长白山—三江平原气温波动增强、降水量波动减弱区和Ⅲ3西南—华南干暖趋势带的云贵高原—南岭西部山地丘陵降水量波动增强、气温波动增强区两个二级气候变化分区,暴雨呈现增加趋势;反之在降水趋势增加的Ⅳ1藏东南—西南湿暖趋势带的藏东南山地—高原降水量波动增强、气温波动增强区,暴雨呈现减少趋势。进一步对暴雨分为短历时的对流型暴雨和长历时的过程型暴雨也有类似的结论。说明现有的一级和二级气候变化区划在一定程度上可以反映暴雨的变化,但仍需要深入采用以极端降水为指标的三级区划对暴雨变化进行研究。Daily precipitation data from 659 meteorological observation stations were used to calculate the interannual and decadal heavy rainfall and heavy rainfall days in China.Then,based on China′s climate change regionalization(1961—2010),heavy rainfall in China was analyzed.The results show that in the increasing and decreasing trend of total precipitation fall in the region climate change regionalization in China,most of the heavy rainfall rendered the corresponding interannual and decadal increasing and decreasing trend.But there are also decreasing trend in total precipitation in I1 temperature fluctuation increasing,precipitation fluctuation decreasing of Xiaoxinganling—Changbaishan Montain—Sanjiang Plain of Northeast China—North China warm-dry trend zone andⅢ3temperature fluctuation increasing,precipitation fluctuation increasing of Yunnan—Guizhou Plateau—Western Nanling Mountain—Hills of Southwest China—South China dry-warm trend zone and,whereas heavy rainfall shows increasing trend;on the contrary increasing trend in total precipitation fall inⅣ1temperature fluctuation increasing,precipitation fluctuation increasing of Southeast Tibet Mountain—Plateau of Southeast Tibet—Southwest China wet-warm trend zone,whereas heavy rainfall shows decreasing trend.The similar conclusions can be drawn under the short duration and long duration of heavy rainfall.It shows that the existing primary and secondary climate change regionalization(1961—2010)reflect the changes of heavy rainfall to a certain extent.But it still need to use extreme precipitation as an indicator of the three divisions of the China′s climate change regionalization(1961—2010)to analyze the heavy rainfall in China.

关 键 词：气候变化区划 年际和年代际 暴雨 时空变化 中国 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]