Initialization and Simulation of a Typhoon Using 4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation——Research on Typhoon Herb (1996)  

四维变分同化方法在台风初始化及其数值模拟中的应用——对9608号(Herb)台风的研究结果(英)

作　　者：张晓艳 王斌 季仲贞 肖庆农 张昕 

机构地区：[1]LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 [2]Mesoscale and Microscale Meterorology,National Center for Atmospheric Research,Boulder,Colorado,USA

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2003年第4期612-622,共11页大气科学进展（英文版）

摘　　要：The MM5 and its four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system are used in this paper. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the authors generate an optimal initial condition for a typhoon by using the bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. BDA is able to recover many of the structural features of typhoons including a warm-core vertex, the correct center position, and the strong circulation. As a result of BDA using a bogus surface low, dramatic improvement is achieved in the 72 h prediction of typhoon Herb. Through several cases, the initialization by BDA effectively generates the harmonious inner structure of the typhoon, but which is lacking in the original analysis field. Therefore the intensity forecast is improved greatly. Some improvements are made in the track forecast, but more work still needs to be done.The MM5 and its four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system are used in this paper. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the authors generate an optimal initial condition for a typhoon by using the bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. BDA is able to recover many of the structural features of typhoons including a warm-core vertex, the correct center position, and the strong circulation. As a result of BDA using a bogus surface low, dramatic improvement is achieved in the 72 h prediction of typhoon Herb. Through several cases, the initialization by BDA effectively generates the harmonious inner structure of the typhoon, but which is lacking in the original analysis field. Therefore the intensity forecast is improved greatly. Some improvements are made in the track forecast, but more work still needs to be done.

关 键 词：variational data assimilation bogus scheme BDA Typhoon Herb numerical simulation 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]