上海市不同历时暴雨组合概率研究  

Study on probability for rainstorm combinations during different durations in Shanghai City

作　　者：曾明[1,2] 张雨凤 李琼芳[1,2] 任锦亮 虞美秀[1,2] 马俊超[1,2] 鞠彬[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学国际河流研究所,江苏南京210098 [3]盐城市水利勘测设计研究院,江苏盐城224000

出　　处：《水资源保护》2015年第4期82-86,共5页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41171220);国家科技支撑计划(2012BAB03B03);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001069;201101052)

摘　　要：基于上海市徐家汇站1960—2011年的日降雨资料,分析上海市年最大1d和3d降水量年际变化和年代际变化特性;择优选择GH Copula函数构建了年最大1 d与3 d降水量的联合分布模型,并推算它们的同现重现期和组合风险概率。结果表明:年最大1 d和3 d降水随时间呈增加趋势,自20世纪70年代开始其均值随年代增加;年最大1 d和3 d设计暴雨同频遭遇风险率在75%~85%之间,且同现风险率随年最大1 d设计暴雨值增大而增加。在设计上海市防洪排涝标准时若考虑最大1 d和3 d降水量的遭遇组合,有利于提升防洪排涝能力,保障防洪安全。Based on the daily precipitation at Xujiahui station from 1960 to 2011 , interannual variation and interannual changing characteristics of annual 1-day and 3-day maximum rainfall were analyzed.The Gumbel-Hougaard Copula function which was selected preferentially was used to build the joint distribution model of annual 1-day and 3-day maximum rainfall, then the co-occurrence return periods and the risk probability were calculated. The result showed that the annual 1-day and 3-day maximum rainfall had an increasing trend with time passed by. In addition, since the 70s their mean values also increased with years.The encounter risk rate of annual 1-day and 3-day design storm rainfall under the same frequency ranged from 75% to 85%, and the co-occurrence risk rate increased with the increase in annual 1-day design storm rainfall.If people consider the joint probability distribution of annual 1-day and 3-day rainfall for designing the flood control and drainage standard for Shanghai, the capability of flood control and drainage will be improved and flood control safety will be guaranteed.

关 键 词：年最大1d降水量 年最大3d降雨量 暴雨频率 COPULA函数 联合概率分布 同现风险率 上海市 

分 类 号：TU992.02[建筑科学—市政工程]