0Cr18Ni10Ti管道钢的概率机械性能  

Probabilistic Mechanical Properties of 0Cr18Ni10Ti Pipe Steel

作　　者：赵永翔[1] 马勇[1] 李朋州[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学机械工程研究所,成都610031 [2]中国核动力研究设计院,成都610041

出　　处：《核动力工程》2003年第5期445-449,共5页Nuclear Power Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50075073);全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金(2002067);教育部优秀青年教师资助计划项目(2101);四川省 (杰出)青年科技基金(2000-14-458)资助

摘　　要：完成了反应堆管道新材料0Cr18Ni10Ti的概率机械性能试验研究。拓展赵等提出的确定有限疲劳可靠性数据良好假设分布的统一方法到本文机械性能数据分析。结果表明,数据具有明显正偏性,常见正态分布描述不适于该套数据。综合考虑各分布的拟合优度、与失效机制的一致性和尾部预测的安全性,数据的良好统计分布是对数正态分布和极大值分布。从统计分析的方便性角度,提出了给定可靠度和置信度下基于对数正态分布的机械性能参数估计方法,并有效地估计了材料的概率机械性能参数。Experimental study of the probabilistic mechanical properties is performed on a new nuclear pipe material of 0Cr18Ni10Ti steel. The unified approach for determining appropriate statistical models of the limited fatigue reliability data by Zhao et al (China Mechanical Engineering, 2001, 12: 1343-1347) is extropolated to analyzis the present test data. Results reveal that the data are distributed in a singinificant positively skewness, which implies that the conventional normal distribution is not valid. The four positively skewed distributions, namely three parameter Weibull, two parameter Weibull, lognormal, and maximum extreme value, are compared by combining the three considerations of goodness-of-fit, consistency of predictions with physics, and safety in tail region. It concluded that the appropriate statistical models are lognormal and maximum extreme value distribution. For the convenience of analysis, a lognormal distribution-based method are further proposed for the estimation of mechanical properties under given reliability and confidence levels. The method has been well used for the estimation of probabilistic parameters of the present material mechanical properties.

关 键 词：管道 0Crl8Nil0Ti钢 机械性能 可靠性 对数正态分布 

分 类 号：TG142.71[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程] TH114[金属学及工艺—金属材料]