广东及邻区地震活动特征及近期地震危险性分析  

Seismicity features and seismic risk analysis in the near future in Guangdong and its neighboring regions

作　　者：刘特培[1] 杨向东[1] 万永芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省地震局,广东广州510070

出　　处：《华南地震》2003年第3期35-40,共6页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：通过对1067～2002年广东及邻区地震活动的研究结果表明,本区6级以上地震主要发生在沿海近海区域,7级以上地震全部位于海中,陆地的中强地震主要发生在北东向和北西向断裂带或其交汇部位,本区陆地不具备孕育7级地震的地质条件。中强地震存在明显的活动周期,当前已进入平静时段。计算了本区各地的地应力,并分析GPS有关观测结果,再结合地震活动参数和有关数理统计结果,认为2005年前本区发生6级以上地震的可能性不大,但存在发生ML5级地震可能。Based on the study of seismic activities in Guangdong and its neighboring regions from 1067 to 2002, the results show that M≥60 earthquakes mostly occurred in the coastal areas,M≥70 all in the sea, mid-strong earthquakes of land at the join area of NE and NW fault belts, there isn't geology condition of M70 earthquake-generating in the land, and mid-strong earthquake has clear active-period and now enters quiet-period. After calculating the stress, analyzing GPS data, combining seismicity parameter and the results of mathematical statistics, we conclude that M≥60 earthquake will be unlikely to occur, but ML50 earthquake may occur before 2005.

关 键 词：地震活动特征 地震活动幕 趋势探讨 广东及邻区 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]