青藏铁路沿线平均年气温变化趋势预测  

Prediction of Annual Average Temperature Change along Qinghai-Xizang Railway

作　　者：李栋梁[1] 郭慧[1] 王文[2] 魏丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学大气科学系,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《高原气象》2003年第5期431-439,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目"青藏铁路工程与多年冻土相互作用及其环境效应"(KZCX1 SW 04)资助

摘　　要：青藏铁路沿线年平均气温具有很好的互相关性,特别是各站10年滑动平均气温序列互相关系数达到0.92,以此建立了1935—2002年青藏铁路沿线平均年气温序列Trw。研究表明:Trw对太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)和大气中CO2浓度有落后5年和15年的显著响应,其相关系数分别为-0.76(SCL)和0.88(CO2)。利用近1000年SCL的76、93、108、205和275年显著周期及均生函数模型预测了未来太阳活动周期的快慢:21世纪前50年的SCL总体偏长,活动周期放慢;后50年SCL总体偏短,活动周期加快。在考虑大气CO2浓度倍增和气候自然变化情况下,预测21世纪前50年Trw与20世纪最后10年(1990年代)相比,其升温幅度在0.5℃左右;与20世纪最后30年(1971—2000年)相比,其升温幅度在1.0℃以内。这一升温幅度的概率为0.64～0.73。The annual average temperature of the stations along Qinghai\|Xizang railwaycorrelated well each other, especially the correlationof 10\|year running average series of them is 0.92. According to the result, the annual averagetemperature series along Qinghai\|Xizang railway (\%T\%rw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The results show that there is notable response between \%T\%rwand the sunspot cycle length (SCL) and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations(CO\-2) with lagging 5 and 15 years, respectively. The correlation coefficient between them respectivelyis -0.76(SCL) and 0.88(CO2). Using 76 a, 93 a, 108 a, 205 aand 75 a significant cycle of SCL and the model of mean generating function, the fast and slow periods of the future SCL is predicted, and the values of SCL in the former 50 years in 2000 will be higher as a whole, and will be lower in the latter 50 years. Considering double CO2concentrations and the climatic change, \%T\%rwof 21\+\{st\}century is forecasted to warm up about 0.5℃ as compared with the last 10 years in 20thcentury (1990's), and about1.0℃ as compared with the last 30 years of 20thcentury (1971\_2000).

关 键 词：青藏铁路沿线 年平均气温预测 太阳黑子周期长度(SCL) 大气CO2浓度 

分 类 号：P423.32[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]