灰色预测方法在油井增产措施评价中的应用  

The Application of GM( 1,1) Model in Evaluation of Oil Well Stimulation Performance

作　　者：毕生[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南油田分公司第一采油厂,河南南阳474780

出　　处：《大庆石油地质与开发》2003年第4期37-39,共3页Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing

摘　　要：产量评价法是油井措施效果评价的常用方法,评价结果取决于日增产油量、增产有效期和累积增产油量三项指标的取值。常规的方法以措施前一个月的日产油水平为基数,并在整个评价期内沿用这一定值,未考虑不采取措施情况下老井产量将进一步递减这一客观规律,计算的评价指标偏低,并且指标统计需要大量实际生产资料,提前进行经济技术评价时无法将指标预测至整个有效期末。针对这一问题,提出一种以灰色系统理论为基础的增产措施评价方法,利用灰色预测方法模型的特性,标定不采取措施情况下老井的自然产量,定量预测措施后产量递减变化,对两组数据进行时间同步校正,求取三项评价指标,算例表明该方法精度高,反应方便,处理实际资料符合度较高。The current method to judge of the oil well stimulation performance used is based on assumption that the value is changeless before and after treatment. The fact is that the oil production will decline if the production is in natural condition, thus the effect of the oil well stimulation performance is always less evaluated. The obstacle of this method is that reservoir engineers have to do lot of collection, organization, a analysis of numerical data if we want to predict the effect of the oil well stimulation performance when the impact is still in action. Based on the theory of gray system, this paper presents a new method to evaluate the oil well stimulation performance. By piling the production decline rate before and after the performance, The gray predicting CM ( 1,1) Model can be established , and the natural production rate of oil well is gained. With the result has got, it is possible to forecast enhancement of the oil production quantitatively in the period of validity. Through application, it is shows that this method is high precision,easy to use, and very practical.

关 键 词：灰色系统 模型 增产措施 评价 方法 

分 类 号：TE331.3[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]