The Change of North China Climate in Transient Simulations Using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model  

作　　者：布和朝鲁 Ulrich CUBASCH 林永辉 纪立人 

机构地区：[1]LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100029 [2]Meteorologisches Institut der Freien Universitaet Berlin,Care-Heinrich-Becker Weg 6 10,12165 [3]Institute of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing100081

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2003年第5期755-766,共12页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-SW-210);the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-203);the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences(G1998040904).

摘　　要：This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to he strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to he strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.

关 键 词：North China Climate change SEASONALITY IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P732