北方降水性层状云人工增雨潜力区的逐步判别研究  

STEPWISE DISCRIMINATION ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL AREAS FOR RA IN ENHANCEMENT IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS IN NORTH CHINA

作　　者：李永振[1] 李茂伦[1] 李薇[1] 崔莲[1] 陈知新[1] 王忠范[2] 李兰[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省人工影响天气办公室,长春130062 [2]吉林省气象台,长春130062

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2003年第4期430-436,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：中国气象局吉林省人民政府人工影响天气联合开放实验室资助

摘　　要：利用 1 991～ 1 999年 9年间飞机人工增雨外场试验期间长春市气象局 0 7:0 0或 1 9:0 0(北京时 ,下同 )的 70 1测风雷达和吉林省气象台 71 3数字化雷达观测资料 ,依据穿云实际宏观观测资料将增雨潜力区分为 :Ⅰ级 (较大 )和Ⅱ级 (较小 )。然后应用逐步判别方法求得5 0 0hPa风速的南风分量、回波顶高度、负温层回波厚度 /正温层回波厚度、0℃层高度 /回波顶高共 4个气象因子参加的两组判别函数S1、S2 。再用MicrosoftVB6.0可视化编程语言 ,以作业前最近时次探空报中 5 0 0hPa风向风速和雷达回波参数为基础将全省划分成 9个催化作业区域 ,根据云系主体回波所在区域 ,对预催化或正在催化的层状云系进行自动解报。By means of the data of the 701 windfinding radar at Stations 07:00 and 19:00 of C hangchun Meteorological Office and the 713 digital radar from Meteorological Bur eau of Jilin Province in the past nine years, the potential areas of rain enhanc ement are classified into two categories: Class I (larger) and Class II (smaller ), according to the data from cross-cloud observation. Two groups of discriminat ion functions S 1, S 2, are given, which include four meteorological facto rs obtained by using stepwise discrimination analysis method: 500 hPa south wind component, height of echo top, (negative temperature layer echo depth)/(positiv e temperature layer echo depth) and (height of 0 ℃ layer)/(height of echo top). Then, by using Microsoft VB6.0, Jinlin Province is divided into nine seeding op eration areas according to radar echo parameters and 500 hPa wind from the near -time radiosonde observation; the automatic decoding and the rain enhancement p otential calculation and automatic display for pre-seeding and seeding stratif orm clouds are conducted.

关 键 词：人工增雨 北方 降水 增雨潜力 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]