失败学与工程失败预警  

FAILURE SCIENCE AND FOREWARNING ON ENGINEERING FAILURE

作　　者：李惠强[1] 吴贤国[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学

出　　处：《土木工程学报》2003年第9期91-95,共5页China Civil Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:70171049)

摘　　要：失败学是管理科学中新出现的分支学科,失败学是从揭示潜藏于事物中的不协调因素出发研究导致失败发生的路径,风险源因素,及时根据失败先兆预警,从而给出避免失败的控制方法。文中借助事故树(FTA)原理提出了采用失败树(FCTA)来分析失败事件。FCTA法不同于FTA法之处在于后者是着眼于事故预防,是事前的分析和估计,而FCTA法是对已经发生的失败事件进行分析,此时失败事件的发生路径、源因素、失控条件相对而言是确定的,失败树的结构相对肯定和明晰。通过对大量失败事件总结,可从管理角度构建图示清楚的失败树。过去对失败事件的经验总结多是文字性的,难以把失败事件的逻辑结构明示清楚。失败树的构建有利于传授失败预防知识。文中还以高层建筑深基坑支护结构失败事件为例,介绍了失败树的建立方法和工程预警系统。Failure Science is a new subject of Management Science. Failure Science is about to locate the hiding inconsistent factors so as to find out the failure path, risk factors and give in time forewarning according to failure foreboding. With these study the control method of avoiding failure will be put forward. By dint of the Failure Tree Analysis (FTA) principle, the method the Failure Cause Tree Analysis (FCTA) was put forward in this paper. The differ of FCTA and FTA is that FTA is with a view to failure prevent, it analyzes and estimates failure beforehand. But FCTA analyzes the failure which has taken place, while the path 、 causes and condition of the failure are comparatively certain, the structure of failure tree is comparatively determinate and perspicuity. By summarizing a great deal failure events, the explicit failure cause tree can be set up in view of management. In the past, the majority summarizes of the failure event are letter, and it is difficult to set up failure tree distinctly. Now, to set up the failure cause tree is avail to impart the knowledge of preventive failure. In this paper, by taking the example of the deep foundation support structure, the methods of setting up forewarning system and failure tree are also introduced.

关 键 词：管理科学 失败学 失败树法 工程预警 深基坑工程 

分 类 号：F294[经济管理—国民经济]