黄河内蒙河段凌汛期流量预报方法浅析  

A model of forecasting in winter flood season period on Inner Mongolian reaches of the Huanghe River

作　　者：李海荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄委会勘测规划设计院,郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》1992年第3期19-22,共4页Yellow River

摘　　要：针对内蒙河段凌汛期(特别是封河期)上、下断面流量关系很不稳定的特点,以石嘴山和河口镇断面流量关系为基础,建立了河口镇流量预报线性回归模型。在确定模型回归参数时,根据各年流凌封冻时间,将各旬的点子以封冻时间进行分类处理,这不仅提高了两断面之间的流量相关程度,而且解决了封河期各旬点群关系散乱无法定线的问题。实例计算结果表明,该模型的流量预报相对误差仅在1％～16％之间。The relation of discharges between two adjacent sections on Inner Monoolian reaches of the Huanghe River isn't stable, especially in frost-bound period. A discharge forecasting model for Hekouzhen section has been set up by method of linear regression based on the discharge relationship between Shizhuishan and Hekouzhen. For regression analysis, the points were derided into groups according to data of river freezing. This approach has not only increased degree of the relationship between the two sections and also solved a problem of random scattering of the points. The calculation by this method showed that the difference between the forecasted and the measured was only 1%～16%.

关 键 词：黄河 流量 预报 凌汛期 

分 类 号：P332.4[天文地球—水文科学]