战争系统中民意走势预测分析模型框架研究  

Study on the Model Architecture of the Public Opinion Tendency for Forecast & Analysis in Warfare System

作　　者：罗批[1] 司光亚[1] 胡晓峰[1] 杨镜宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防大学训练模拟中心,北京100091

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2003年第10期94-98,共5页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家"十五"863资助(2001AA115120)

摘　　要：将目前最具活力的方法之一——基于Agent的复杂模型构建技术引入战争系统的民意问题中,提出了“政治倾向性(民意走向)进化”的观点,设计了我国某地区特定民意走势的预测分析模型,并详细分析了模型实现框架和运行流程,为民意走势预测分析进一步的研究奠定基础.In this paper, we introduce a hot topic - agent-based modeling method into the public opinion issue in warfare system, and propose an idea of political tendency evolution. Moreover, we design a model for forecast & analysis of the special public opinion tendency in special district of our country. Finally, we analyze the model's realization procedure and flow, which is a milestone of our future research.

关 键 词：战争系统 民意预测分析 AGENT建模 

分 类 号：E911[军事]