Quasi-periodicity of temperature changes on the millennial scale  

作　　者：GEQuansheng FANGXiuqi ZHENGJingyun 

机构地区：[1]DepartmentofGeography,LanzhouUniversity,Lanzhou730000,China [2]DepartmentofGeography,BeijingNormalUniversity.Beijhag100875,China [3]InstituteofGeographicalScienceandResourcesResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,BeijingI00101,China

出　　处：《Progress in Natural Science:Materials International》2003年第8期601-606,共6页自然科学进展·国际材料（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-314,KZCX3-sw-321) and Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.CXIOG-A00-02)

摘　　要：Quasi-periodicity of temperature changes on the millennial scale is found according to the proxy data both from historical documents and natural evidence in China. The auto-correlation of the temperature changes series for the last 2000 years is most significant on the 1350 a time lag. The period of 1350 a includes 4 warm/cold stages: 200～250 a warm stage, 150～200 a cold stage, 300～350 a warm stage, and 550～600 a cold stage. In contrast to the 550～600 a cold stage, the other three stages can be united in one warm dominant stage. Inferred from the 1350 a period, the 20th century warm stage belongs to the 200～250 a warm stage, which is similar to the warm stage occurring during the 570's～770's. The process of temperature change in the 20th century warm stage is similar to that of the 570's～770's. But the warming rate in the 20th century is more rapid. The temperature anomaly in the 1980's～1990's shows a greater departure from the regression equation of that between 1500's～1900's and 150's～650's. Whether it can be regarded as the forcing of human activities is worth studying further.Quasi-periodicity of temperature changes on the millennial scale is found according to the proxy data both from historical documents and natural evidence in China. The auto-correlation of the temperature changes series for the last 2000 years is most significant on the 1350 a time lag. The period of 1350 a includes 4 warm/cold stages: 200 - 250 a warm stage, 150 - 200 a cold stage, 300 - 350 a warm stage, and 550 - 600 a cold stage. In contrast to the 550 - 600 a cold stage, the other three stages can be united in one warm dominant stage. Inferred from the 1350 a period, the 20th century warm stage belongs to the 200 - 250 a warm stage, which is similar to the warm stage occurring during the 570's-770's. The process of temperature change in the 20th century warm stage is similar to that of the 570 s - 770 s. But the warming rate in the 20th century is more rapid. The temperature anomaly in the 1980's-1990's shows a greater departure from the regression equation of that between 1500's-1900's and 150's -650's. Whether it can be regarded as the forcing of human activities is worth studying further.

关 键 词：QUASI-PERIODICITY temperature change millennial scale the period of 1350a. 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]