道路交通运行状态可靠性评价方法综述及展望  

Summarization and Expectation of Reliability Assessment of Road Traffic Performance

作　　者：陈艳艳[1] 高爱霞[1] 刘小明[1] 荣建[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学交通研究中心,北京市100022

出　　处：《公路》2003年第10期127-131,共5页Highway

基　　金：国家自然科学基金 (5 0 0 80 0 2 ) ;北京市自然科学基金重点项目 (80 3 10 0 2 );北京市科技新星的项目 (H0 13 680 0 80 112 )资助

摘　　要：重点对国内外交通运行状态的可靠性评价研究现状进行综述 ,并围绕现存问题进行未来研究展望。论文讨论了现有交通运行状态的非概率评价指标的局限性及道路交通运行可靠性概率评价的必要性 ,分析了目前国内外有代表性的若干可靠度指标 ,如连通可靠度、运行时间可靠度、容量可靠度及畅通可靠度的计算方法及适用范围。并对可靠度指标在路网规划、交通管理、智能交通管理系统中的应用前景及未来研究重点进行了展望。The main topic of the paper is to summarize the status quo of a research on the performance reliability assessment of road system and makes expectation of future research. The limitation of non-pro- bability assessment indices and the necessity of probability assessment are discussed. The algorithm and applicable area of some representative reliability indices such as connective reliability, time reliability, capacity reliability and unblocked reliability are analyzed. The future application and key research of reliability indices in road network planning, traffic management and intelligent traffic system are expected.

关 键 词：道路交通运行状态 可靠性评价方法 路网规划 系统评价 交通管理 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]