装备可靠性门限值确定方法研究  

Study on the Determination Method for the Reliability Threshold of Materiel

作　　者：任建军[1] 杨云 张恒喜[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学,工程学院,陕西,西安,710038 [2]空军,第八研究所,北京,100076

出　　处：《装备指挥技术学院学报》2003年第5期49-52,共4页Journal of the Academy of Equipment Command & Technology

基　　金：部委级资助项目

摘　　要：介绍了装备可靠性门限值的概念和确定方法,提出了2种确定装备可靠性门限值的方法--基于专家评分的相似装备折衷系数法和基于Duane模型的预测增长率法.相似装备折衷系数法综合考虑了研制阶段影响装备可靠性的因素,在需要与可能之间权衡,采用折衷的办法得到门限值;预测增长率法综合考虑了装备投入外场后影响可靠性增长的因素,采用模糊综合评判的方法确定了Duane模型中的增长率,利用Duane模型确定了装备可靠性的门限值.The paper introduces the conception and determination method of reliability threshold of materiel. Two determination methods of reliability threshold of materiel namely expert assessment based similar item eclectic quotiety method and Duane model based on growth rate predicting method are presented. The similar item eclectic quotiety method takes various factors that influence materiel reliability in development phase and balances the requirement and possibility, gets the threshold by eclectic approach. The growth rate predicting method fully considers the factors which influence the reliability growth in field, applies fuzzy integrate assessment to get the growth rate of Duane model, and determines the reliability threshold of materiel by Duane model.

关 键 词：可靠性 门限值 相似装备折衷系数法 预测增长率法 模糊综合评判 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]