应用前期ENSO指标做棉铃虫大发生预测  

Using advance ENSO indices to forecast outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera

作　　者：秦淑莲[1] 翟保平[1] 张孝羲[1] 赵振国[2] 姜玉英[3] 屈西峰[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学昆虫学系农业部病虫监测与治理重点实验室,南京210095 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]农业部全国农业技术推广服务中心病虫测报处,北京100026

出　　处：《生态学报》2003年第9期1695-1711,共17页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家"973"资助项目(TG2000016210);国家"十五"攻关资助项目(2001BA50PB01);国家"948"资助项目(201065)~~

摘　　要：分析了山东郓城26a(1974～1999)和德州22a(1978～1999)棉铃虫3代百株累计卵量、江苏丰县20a(1980～1999)棉铃虫2代百株累计卵量与从前两年1月份开始到当年7月份的ENSO指标(包括厄尔尼诺5个海温区N12、N3、N4、NC、NW的月平均海温距平)和南方涛动指数(SOI)的遥相关关系。遥相关分析结果表明德州、郓城三代卵量和丰县二代卵量与ENSO各指标遥相关关系的时间变化规律很相似,与各时段的N4均呈正相关,与NW和SOI大多数月份呈负相关。从中筛选出相关显著(p<0.05)的区域和时段作为预测因子,根据判别分析法用不同因子或因子组合分别建立了郓城、德州棉铃虫三代卵、丰县棉铃虫二代卵量的大发生预测模型,并对各模型进行回测检验及5～6a的预测检验,根据其预测效果筛选出最佳的灾变预测模型。结果表明,N4区的因子或因子组合建立的模型对德州、郓城棉铃虫三代卵量和丰县棉铃虫二代卵量的预测效果最好,可提前15～25个月做出大发生预测。Statistical evidences is presented to show a teleconnection between population density (egg counts) of cotton bollworm (CBW), Helicoverpa armigera Hübner, and ENSO indices during the previous 2.5 years (from January of two years before to the current July). The ENSO indices used were the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the five El Nio regions: Nio1&2 region (N12, 0～10°S,90～80°W), Nio3 region (N3, 5°N～5°S,150°～90°W ), Nio4 region (N4, 5°N～5°S, 160°E～150°W), NioCentral region (NC, 0°～10°S, 90°～180°W) and NioWestern region (NW, 0°～15°N, 130°～150°E). These ENSO indices were correlated with CBW survey data over 26 years (1974～1999) in Yuncheng, 22 years (1978～1999) in Dezhou, Shandong Province and 20 years (1980～1999) in Fengxian, Jiangsu province. We found significant (p<005) or highly significant (p<001) correlations between changes in CBW populations and ENSO indices. The abundance of CBW eggs was positively correlated with the SST anomaly in the N4 region and negatively correlated with the SST anomaly in NW region and with the SOI. Third generation eggs in Yuncheng and second generation eggs in Fengxian were significantly (p<005) correlated with ENSO indices during some months for all regions except N12. The only significant (p<005) correlation of egg numbers with SOI was for October of previous year, and the earliest significant (p<005) correlation with SST in the NW region was December of two years ago. The earliest month that showed significant (p<005) correlation between the third generation eggs of CBW in Dezhou and the SST anomaly in the NW region was November of two years ago, and was April of two years ago with SOI. The earliest significant (p<005) correlation for the third generation eggs in Yuncheng and Dezhou was with the SST of April of two years ago in N4, and was with the SST of August of two years ago for the second ge

关 键 词：棉铃虫 ENSO 相关分析 长期预测 

分 类 号：S435.62[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]