强震前大小地震比例关系及在地震预报中的应用  

The proportion of large to small earthquakes and application in earthquake prediction

作　　者：邵辉成[1] 李炳乾[1] 赵卫明[2] 刘志辉[3] 夏长起[3] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省地震局,陕西西安710068 [2]宁夏回族自治区地震局,宁夏银川750001 [3]河北省地震局,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《地震》2003年第4期37-42,共6页Earthquake

基　　金：十五"中国地震局计划项目(2001BA601B01 03 04)

摘　　要：针对目前广泛使用的b值对资料要求较高的缺陷,利用贝叶斯判别准则,计算强震前中小地震数比p值的方法,计算了西北地区6级以上地震前中小地震比例的变化情况,结果表明该值与6级以上地震有明显的对应关系,地震一般发生在p值高值异常区,说明该方法对西北地区6级以上地震有一定的预测意义,同时对p值的物理意义进行了探讨。Aiming at the shortage of the b value method, which needs higher quality data, we used the maximum likelihood and Byaesian minimum criterion method to calculate the proportion number of large to small earthquakes before the eight strong earthquakes with M≥6 in Northwest China region. It is found that the proportion has a certain significance for predicting the strong earthquakes with M≥6 in Northwest China; and the paper also gives the explanation of the proportion of large to small earthquakes.

关 键 词：强震 地震比例 地震预报 贝叶斯信息准则 西北地区 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学] P315.01[天文地球—固体地球物理学]