北京市SARS疫情统计分析  

Statistical Analysis on SARS Epidemic Situation in Beijing

作　　者：张利军[1] 程代展[1] 洪奕光[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100080

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2003年第10期102-109,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金 SA RS专项资助(6 0 34 30 01)

摘　　要：本文对严重急性呼吸道综合症 SA RS疾病进行了统计分析 .文章首先以北京市海淀区 SARS确诊病例和疑似病例为研究对象 ,分别按照地区、人口进行了统计分析 ,得出海淀区不同小区疫情发展的显著程度 .然后利用正交试验设计 ,分别就年龄、性别、职业等因素对海淀区 SARS确诊病人和疑似病人影响程度进行了统计分析 ,得出 2 1岁到 50岁的学生和干部得病率最高的统计结果 ,这完全符合海淀区的疫情事实 .这个统计结果已经被海淀区政府“海淀区政府应急管理信息系统 ( H EMIS)”[6]采用 . H EMIS系统作为中国第一个政府应急系统在海淀区 SARS防治中起到了一定作用 [1 ] .文章最后研究了北京市每天新增的确诊病例和每天疑似病例转为确诊病例之间的相关系数 ,从它们的相关性分析可以反映出防治 SARS疫情措施的有效性 .This paper deals with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) using statistical analysis methods. Based on the numbers of the confirmed cases and the suspected cases of Haidian district in Be ijing city, we first statistically analyze SARS epidemic situation of Haidian di strict with regard to region and population, respectively. Then using orthogonal designs, we investigate how some factors such as age, gender and occupation inf luence the confirmed cases and the suspected cases of Haidian district, and obta in that the group of students and civil servants from 21 to 50 years old is of t he highest disease ratio, which is completely consistent with epidemic situation of Haidian district. These results have been adopted by ″Haidian Government Em ergency Management Information Systems(HEMIS)″ for SARS treatment and preventio n. Finally we show the correlation between the daily increased confirmed cases a nd the daily confirmed cases transformed from the suspected cases in Beijing cit y. Which shows the effectiveness of the strategies of SARS treatment and prevent ion measures.

关 键 词：北京 严重急性呼吸道综合症 疫情统计分析 SARS 非典型肺炎 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]