登革热数学模型及其应用研究(Ⅱ)──利用数学模型评价不同措施对登革热的防治效应  

Studies on mathematical model of dengue fever and its application(Ⅱ) ——Using mathematical model to evaluate the effect of different measures on the control of dengue fever

作　　者：陈文江[1] 吴开琛[2] 吴开录[3] 赵志国[4] 

机构地区：[1]海南省热带病防治研究所,海口570203 [2]中国预防医学科学院寄生虫病研究所,上海200025 [3]海南师范学院数学研究所,海口571158 [4]海南省卫生防疫站,海口570203

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2001年第2期117-120,共4页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金项目

摘　　要：利用我们建立的登革热数学模型，通过计算机对５种不同的防治措施和不同时间采取措施控制登革热流行的效应进行了模拟评价，结果显示，室内滞留喷洒对控制登革热的流行最为有效；清除革生场所有一定效果，但视清除孳生场所的程度而定；而同时采用清除孳生场所和使用蚊帐防护的措施可收到较好的防治效果，而且费用可能较低；超低容量喷洒效果较差。模拟结果表明，同一种措施，即使只提前１０天实施，效果也好得多。模拟还表明，在人群中，如果７０％以上的人具有特异性允疫力，即可有效地阻止同型登革病毒的输入和流行。上述模拟结果将为现场流行病学工作者提供有价值的参考，同时也显示了疾病数学模型的实际应用价值。Using the mathematical model developed by us, the computer simulations of the effect of different measures and adopted at different time on controlling the prevalence of dengue fever The results showed that indoor residual spraying is most effective for controlling the prevalence of dengue fever; the measures of cleaning breeding places of the mosquito have sonic efficiency; the measures of cleaning breeding places combined with bednet for protecting the patients from mosquitoes at day time have better effect and cost may be less; the measures of ultralow volume spraying can only delay the appearance of peak of transmission and it has little impact on the prevalence. The results showed that if only the same measures is taken 10 days in advance, the control effect will be much better , The results of simulation also showed that if 70% of the population developed a specific immunity to the infection, the imported same sero- type of dengue fever can be effectively prevented, The results of simulation mentioned above will provide valuable reference for epidemiological workers in field

关 键 词：登革热 数学模型 预防 治疗 计算机模拟 埃及伊蚊 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学]