用太阳系主要天体的位置建立特大地震的时间预测模型  

A Time Forecasting Model of the Great Seisms Obtained by the Positions of Major in Bodies Solar System

作　　者：李勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台,北京100012

出　　处：《天文学报》2003年第4期363-368,共6页Acta Astronomica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.19973011)资助项目

摘　　要：根据某类事件发生时太阳系主要运动天体的位置,通过对其历史资料的归算,尝试并设计出一种具有普适性的事件时间预测模型.以1900—1980年间全球所有8级及以上的99次地震为例,定义与天体特征位置(视黄经)相关的发震率,初步建立预测发震时刻的概率曲线.指出这可能成为研究地震预报问题的新途径.According to positions calculations of major in bodies solar system including the sun, moon and Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn when some events occurred and reduced their historical data, this paper tries to design a time forecasting model that might be wide used in differint nature disasters studies. All there 99 great earthquakes (M>8.0) as examples happened in the world from 1900 to 1980. The apparent longitude as the character positions of the celestial bodies are related to the occurrence rate of these seisms. We define the probability curve as the forecast of the great earthquakes. It may be as a new way to investigate earthquake predictions.

关 键 词：太阳系 地震 时间预测模型 行星位置 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学] P183.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]