玉米粗缩病的流行因素与预测模型  

Epidemic factors and predictive models for the disease caused by maize rough dwarf virus

作　　者：苗洪芹[1] 陈巽祯[1] 曹克强[2] 杨彦杰 李双月 邸垫平[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省农林科学院植保所,河北保定071000 [2]河北农业大学植物保护学院,河北保定071001 [3]河北省植保总站,河北石家庄050011 [4]河北省辛集市植保站,河北辛集052360

出　　处：《河北农业大学学报》2003年第2期60-64,共5页Journal of Hebei Agricultural University

基　　金：河北省科学技术厅重点攻关项目资助(97220303D)

摘　　要：通过对1977—1984年辛集试验基地调查数据的整理和对此期间3-6月份平均、最高、最低温度以及月降雨量和降雨次数等29个变量与病株率的相关性和相关程度的逐步回归分析,表明:5月份降雨量、5月份降雨次数和3-4月份平均最高温度、越冬代灰飞虱的虫量、带毒率和麦田绿矮病株率为影响玉米粗缩病发生流行的主要因素。本文建立了以越冬代灰飞虱虫量V1、带毒率V2和5月份降雨量V18为测报因子的2个玉米粗缩病的预测预报模型:①Y=0.692+0.93V1+0.314V2+0.059V18,②Y=0.263+1.10V1+0.069V18。经用1996—1999年的试验和气象数据进行检验,准确率均达75%以上。因此,2个模型均可用于河北省中南部玉米粗缩病的预测预报。The disease caused by maize rough dwarf virus (MRDV) is the most important virus disease of maize in China. To control the disease effectively and economically, the main factors affecting the disease incidence and the predictive method are needed to find out. By analyzing the data from 1977 to 1984, (1) six factors were found out to be the main factors affecting MRDV occurring and spreading. They were the numbers and virus-borne rates of overwintering generation of the vector (Laodelphax striatellus fallen), the infected rates of winter wheat plants, the amount and times of rainfall in May and average maximum temperature from March to April. (2) Two predictive models for MRDV occurrence and spreading were developed based on the disease incidence over 8 years. They were Y=0.692+0.93V1+0.314V2+0.059V18 and Y=0.263+1.10V1+0.069V18. The numbers (V1) and virus-borne rates (V2) of overwintering generation of the vector and the total rainfall amount in May (V18) were found to be significant forecasters statistically and biologically. With experimental data of 1996-1999, those two models were validated. By comparing the predictive and the real disease intensities, the results support the feasibility of the models in the middle and the south parts of Hebei province. 

关 键 词：玉米 粗缩病 流行因素 预测模型 降雨量 降雨次数 病株率 逐步回归分析 

分 类 号：S435.131[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]