马尔可夫链在大白菜年景预报中的应用  

The Application of Markov Chain in Forecasting Year′s Harvest of Chinese Cabbage

作　　者：赵利民[1] 周西利 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学园艺学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西安市未央区蔬菜技术站,陕西西安710016

出　　处：《西北农业学报》2003年第4期139-142,共4页Acta Agriculturae Boreali-occidentalis Sinica

基　　金：西安市科技攻关项目(NG200201)。

摘　　要：通过23年的产量资料分析,将西安郊区大白菜年景划分为大丰年、丰年、平年、欠年、灾年、重灾年6个年景状态,各状态发生的概率分别为0.13、0.13、0.39、0.09、0.13、0.13;应用马尔可夫链对西安郊区大白菜年景进行了分析和预报,其方法客观、准确、可靠、简便、易行,为大白菜年景预报提供了一条新途径。The year's harvest in suburbs of Xi′an can be divided into bumper harvest year,good harvest year,average harvest year,poor harvest year,fail harvest year and severely fail year based on the yield analysis of 23 year′s,the probabilities for the above are 0.13,0.13,0.39,0.09,0.13,and 0.13 respectively.The Markov chain is also used to analyze and forecast the year′s harvest in the suburbs of Xi′an,The specific,accurate,reliable,easy method provides the new way to forecast the year′s harvest of Chinese cabbage.

关 键 词：马尔可夫链 大白菜 年景预报 应用 

分 类 号：S431[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]