基于成员特征和历史信息的群体合作动态演化模型及中美关系仿真分析  

The Dynamical Evolution Model of Group Cooperation Based on Member Characteristic and Historical Information and Simulation Analysis of China-American Relation

作　　者：叶红心[1] 张朋柱[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学管理科学与工程研究院,南京210093 [2]上海交通大学管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2003年第12期1702-1706,共5页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(79990580);国家自然科学基金项目(70171028)。

摘　　要：首先我们从博弈论和心理学角度出发提出合作隶属度、合作意愿度和基准收益等基本概念;其次,在心理学有关原理的前提下建构了基于历史信息和成员特征的合作意愿度迭代模型;最后,我们通过对中美关系合作—冲突事件链的仿真分析以验证合作意愿度迭代模型的预测功能,同时有针对性地提出一些具有建设性的政策和建议。In this paper, we above all present the concept of cooperation membership degree (CMD), the degree of willingness to cooperate (DWC) and basic payoff rate based on relative game theory from viewpoint of psychology. Secondly we build up DWC iterated model based on historical information and member characteristic under the premise of relative psychological principles. Finally we illustrate the prediction function of DWC iterated model through the simulation analysis of the cooperation-conflict evidence chain of Sino-American relation, and at the same time we provide some constructive policy and suggestions.

关 键 词：合作意愿度 成员特征 历史信息 合作意愿度迭代模型 中关关系 

分 类 号：E911[军事] TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]