Hierarchy and nonstationarity in climate systems:Exploring the prediction of complex systems  

作　　者：YANGPeicai BIANJianchun WANGGeli ZHOUXiuji 

机构地区：[1]InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences.Beijing100029,China [2]ChineseAcademyofMetorologicalSciences,Beijing100081,China

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2003年第19期2148-2154,共7页

基　　金：This work Was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40035010).

摘　　要：The prediction theories for complex systems with a hierarchical structure and their applications to the climate process are a significant and forward-looking field of research. However, up to the present, they are yet not known and understood very well. This paper presents a preliminary theoretical frame for them. As a normal example, the basic behaviors and the dynamic structure of the climate system are discussed in detail. The conclusions indicate that the climate system may be considered as a cascade of several subsystems located in different hierarchies. Such a dynamic structure is just the cause resulting in the nonstationarity. The conclusions also indicate that the main barrier of the climate prediction in theory derives from the contrary between the stationarity hypothesis for the current prediction theory and the nonstationary behavior of the real climate process. In addition, some work is discussed for detecting the nonstationarity in climate and other geophysical data and predicting the nonstationary process developed in recent years. These works may construct a preliminary base for applying to the climate predictions.The prediction theories for complex systems with a hierarchical structure and their applications to the climate process are a significant and forward-looking field of research. However, up to the present, they are yet not known and understood very well. This paper presents a preliminary theoretical frame for them. As a normal example, the basic behaviors and the dynamic structure of the climate system are discussed in detail. The conclusions indicate that the climate system may be considered as a cascade of several subsystems located in different hierarchies. Such a dynamic structure is just the cause resulting in the nonstationarity. The conclusions also indicate that the main barrier of the climate prediction in theory derives from the contrary between the stationarity hypothesis for the current prediction theory and the nonstationary behavior of the real climate process. In addition, some work is discussed for detecting the nonstationarity in climate and other geophysical data and predicting the nonstationary process developed in recent years. These works may construct a preliminary base for applying to the climate predictions.

关 键 词：气候系统 层次结构 非平稳性 浑沌性 气候预报 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]