Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用  

Poisson-Logistic compound bivariate extreme distribution and its application in designing of platform deck clearance

作　　者：刘德辅[1] 宋艳[1] 李晓冬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋防灾研究所,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《海洋工程》2003年第4期35-40,共6页The Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50379051);国家十五攻关资助项目(2001BA80306)

摘　　要：考虑到平台所在海区台风出现的频次及其诱发之风、浪、潮、流极端海况联合出现的概率特性,本文推导出Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模式,并以平台甲板标高进行实例计算。新模式增加了概率模型的物理内涵,解决了Logistic模型阈值选取的任意性。对海洋工程极端海况荷载组合预测具有广泛的应用前景。This paper proposes a new bivariate probability model--PoissonLogistic compound extreme distribution. Because the routes and frequencies of Typhoons vary each year, the frequencies of Typhoons occurring in certain sea areas also vary from year to year. This may form a discrete distribution. Typhooninduced extreme sea environments can form some multivariate extreme distributions, A new kind of distribution--PoissonLogistic compound bivariate extreme distribution--is proposed in this paper. As one of the application example, a platform deck clearance is estimated by compounding typhooninduced maximum wave crest height and surge with 100yrs joint occurring return period (6.20+1.95)m instead of the traditional method which proposes to use the separate 100yrs return period wave crest height and surge (6.67+2.95)m in East China Sea.

关 键 词：复合极值分布 Poisson-Logistic二维模型 波峰高度 风暴增水 海洋工程 海洋平台 甲板 标高设计 

分 类 号：P752[天文地球—海洋科学]