外生冲击对中国经济增长周期的影响  

The Influence on China’s Economic Growth Cycle by External Impact

作　　者：宋玉华[1] 任志祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《经济学家》2004年第1期31-36,共6页Economist

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"世界经济周期理论研究"资助(项目号:02AGJ001)。

摘　　要：本文分析了外生冲击对中国经济增长及其周期的影响,指出整体性、持久性的冲击将对经济产生较大影响;暂时性的外生冲击对中国经济有影响,但不会太大;中国经济的长期运行趋势不会轻易改变。同时提出了建立冲击预警机制和健全危机管理体系、增强经济系统抵御和化解冲击能力等一系列应对外生冲击,确保中国经济稳定运行的策略建议。This article analyzes influences on the growth and cycle of China's economy exerted by the external impact, indicates that integrate, durable impact will exert significant influence on the economy. Temporary external impact will affect economy but with less power. The long term trend of China's economy will not change easily. At the same time, in order to deal with the external impact and ensure China's economic stable development, this article brings forward a series of strategic advices, including setting up early warning mechanism, optimizing the crisis management system, enhancing the economic system's capability of defensing and resolving external impact.

关 键 词：外生冲击 中国 经济增长周期 经济波动 预警机制 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]