开放经济下货币政策有效性的实证研究  

Empirical Study of Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Open Economy

作　　者：范从来[1] 廖晓萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,南京210093

出　　处：《江苏行政学院学报》2003年第3期34-44,共11页The Journal of Jiangsu Administration Institute

基　　金：教育部高等学校全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目<开放经济条件下货币政策运行机制研究>(项目批准号 :2 0 0 2 0 3 )的研究成果;教育部<高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研奖励计划>的资助

摘　　要：本文借鉴Karras一文实证研究的思路与方法 ,采用向量自回归VAR框架 ,运用E views2 .0计量工具 ,对中国改革开放以来的有关产出、价格和开放度的年度数据进行实证分析 ,检验经济开放度对于货币政策数量效果的影响。回归结果表明 :货币政策的产出效果随着经济开放度的增大而减小 ,通货膨胀率同样随着经济开放度的增大而减小 ,两者表现出负相关的关系。随着我国经济开放度的提高 ,货币政策的经济增长效应会不断弱化 ,引起的价格波动会有所增强 。By using the way of thinking and methods in that of Karras for reference, taking the VAR framework of vector autoregression and with Eviews 2.0, this article makes an empirical analysis of yearly data about output, price and openness since the reform and opening of China to check the influence of economic openness on the volume effect of monetary policy. The result of regression shows that the output effect of monetary policy decreases with the increasing openness of economy, and so does the rate of inflation so both shows the relationship of negative correlation. With China’s wider openness of economy, economic increasing effects of monetary policy will be minimized and the fluctuation of price will be reinforced so the goal of monetary policy should be specified further into the only one as steadying price.

关 键 词：经济开放度 货币政策 有效性 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]