深圳市1953-2012年极端气候事件变化分析  

Analysis of change of extreme climate event in Shenzhen from 1953 to 2012

作　　者：黄国如[1,2] 冼卓雁 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510640 [2]华南理工大学亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室,广东广州510640

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2014年第3期8-13,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301093);华南理工大学亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室自主研究课题项目(2014ZC09);深圳市水务局科技项目(2013012)

摘　　要：全球气候变化导致极端气候事件频发,选择描述极端气候事件的相关指标,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法等对深圳市1953-2012年极端气候指标进行分析。结果表明:总体上深圳市降水频次与极端降水量均呈现起伏不定的变化规律,四季极端降水量主要集中在夏季,全年和四季降水量均没有明显的变化趋势。深圳市极端气温总体呈现较为显著稳定的变化状况;极端高温事件不断增加,极端低温事件不断减少,且趋势显著,同一季节的气温差异性较大,且差异性呈现出比较显著的加大趋势。Extreme climate events are frequently occurred due to global climate change. The paper chose the relevant indexes which describe extreme climate event and used Mann-Kendall trend test method to analyze extreme climate indexes in Shenzhen from 1953 to 2012. The results show that the precipitation frequency and extreme precipitation in Shenzhen presented the change law of ups and downs. The extreme precipitation of four seasons concentrated in the summer,the annual and seasonal precipitation had no obvious change tendency. The change of extreme temperature in Shenzhen is significant and stable,the extreme high temperature events continuously increase,the extreme low temperature events continuously decrease,and the trend is notable,the temperature difference of same season is greater,and the difference appears a significant increase trend.

关 键 词：极端气候事件 极端降雨 极端降雨频次 MANN-KENDALL法 稳定性分析 深圳市 

分 类 号：P463.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]