上海市1971-2010年降水时空变化特征  

Characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of precipitation in Shanghai from 1971 to 2010

作　　者：高习伟 姜允芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2015年第6期48-53,60,共7页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51108182);上海市浦江计划项目(C类)(12PJC031)

摘　　要：基于上海市11个气象站的逐月降水数据,利用线形回归、Mann-Kendall等多种数理统计及GIS空间插值的地学统计方法对上海市1971-2010年的年、季降水时空演变特征进行分析。结果表明:在时间上,年降水量为不显著增加趋势,春秋两季呈微弱下降趋势;变化特征不明显;夏冬两季呈增加趋势,冬季增加趋势尤为显著。在空间分布上,年、秋季降水呈东西分异,春、冬呈南北分异,夏季呈东北-西南分布。年、季降水量及趋势分布表现出差异性和一致性特点,其中年和夏季降水量分布与各自趋势分布的空间相关性较高,整体表现为市区大于郊区、东部沿海大于西部内陆。研究结果对于认识全球气候变化的区域响应具有重要的基础性科学意义,同时可为上海市水资源管理及洪涝灾害应对提供参考。Based on the monthly precipitation data of 11 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2010 , the paper used the methods such as linear regression , Mann-Kendall test and the inverse distance weighted interpolation to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation in Shanghai from 1971 to 2010 .The results indicate that there were not significant increase in the long -term mean annual precipitation in recent 40 years.The seasonal precipitation showed various trend ,the spring and autumn precipitation faintly decreased .While the precipitation in summer and winter showed an increasing trend , especially that in winter was obvious .Spatially , the annual and autumn precipitation decreased from east to west, while the spring and winter precipitation increased from north to south .The annual and seasonal precipitation and their trends presented the characteristics of difference and consistency , among which the annual and summer precipitation were positively correlated with their trends , increased from the western inland to the east coast and decreased from urban district to suburb .The results can provide a scientific basis for recognizing regional response to global climate change , and provide a reference for the manage-ment of water resources and the response flood disaster in Shanghai .

关 键 词：降水量 MANN-KENDALL检验 时空变化 上海 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]