中国经济增长前景  

China’s Economic Growth Prospects

作　　者：白重恩[1] 张琼[2] BAI Chong-En;ZHANG Qiong(Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management;Central University of Economics and Finance)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经管学院 [2]中央财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《新金融评论》2015年第6期1-22,共22页New Finance Review

基　　金：中国金融四十人论坛(CF40)内部课题“中国经济增长前景”的部分成果,课题经CF40组织专家评审

摘　　要：中国2015年增长率创1990年以来最低,经济下行压力不断加大;如何看待'6时代'的中国经济?其未来增长潜力如何?这是当前引起高度关注的热议话题。本课题借鉴已有研究方法,从供给侧角度来预测中国中长期增长潜力。课题分为两个维度:基于跨国'收敛'共性规律估计'劳动生产率增长率',基于中国特殊国情个性特征估计'劳动力增长率',之后回避具体函数形式讨论预测了中国2015-2050年间各年的'经济增长率'。The growth rate of China in the third quarter of 2015 was only 6.9%,the lowest ever seen since 2009.Is the current slowdown due to post-crisis cyclical factors,or has China entered a new normal?What is China’s potential economic growth in the future?These are important and significant questions,the answers to which will have important policy implications.Based on previous studies,this paper projects China’s future growth potential from the supply side in terms of two perspectives.This paper tries to predict China’s future labor productivity by referencing the rule of cross-country labor productivity convergence,and predict labor growth by taking into account China’s unique demographics and labor force participation.

关 键 词：中国经济 供给侧 劳动力增长率 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]