福建地区地倾斜中短期前兆异常识别及映震效果初探  

Identification and primary study on the reflecting earthquake effect of the medium-short term precursory anomalies for ground tilt in Fujian

作　　者：傅再扬[1] 吴绍祖 郑永通[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省地震局,福建福州350003

出　　处：《华南地震》2003年第4期66-70,共5页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：对福建地区10年来的倾斜资料,统一用调和分析、差分分析、卡尔曼滤波和最大相关系数方法进行系统处理,提取异常信息,统计分析它们与该地区MS5级以上地震的关系,并对这几种方法进行评价。结果是:地倾斜固体潮M2波γ因子异常与地震的对应率为46%(P=54%),差分分析方法识别的异常与地震对应率为23%(P=42%),卡尔曼滤波方法识别的异常与地震的对应率为30%(P=34%),最大相关系数分析方法识别的异常与地震对应率为19%(P=37%)。The data of 5 sets of tilt-meter in 5 stations about 10 years in Fujian are processed systematically by the methods of harmonic analysis, difference analysis, Kallman filtering and maximum correlation coefficient. The anomalous information of these data is picked up and the relations between the anomalies and M_S≥5 earthquakes in the region are analyzed statistically. In this way, all methods are evaluated. The results show that 46% anomalies (P =54%) identified by γfactor of M2 waves of ground tilt solid tides, 23% anomalies ( P =42%) recognized by difference analysis, 30% anomalies ( P =34%) picked up by Kallman filtering and 19% anomalies (P =37%) obtained by maximum correlation coefficient are corresponded to earthquakes.

关 键 词：地震前兆异常 地震预报 地倾斜 映震效果 地震对应率 福建 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]