人民币均衡汇率决定的理论和实证分析  

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate Determination

作　　者：窦祥胜[1] 杨炘[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国软科学》2003年第12期31-37,共7页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70173006)

摘　　要：均衡汇率模型的核心是分析基本经济因素变化对均衡汇率的影响,并利用它们之间存在着的系统联系来估计均衡汇率。通过现代经济计量分析发现,国内投资、经济增长、利用外资效果和对外贸易状况,是人民币均衡汇率的长期决定因素。分析结果表明,人民币汇率已经进入一个相对稳定的变化发展阶段。从未来改革方向看,应当适当地扩大人民币汇率浮动范围,以充分反映出人民币汇率有管理的浮动汇率制特征。The core of equilibrium exchange rate model is to analyze the effects of basic economic factors on equilibrium exchange rate and to estimate equilibrium exchange rate according to systemic relation between equilibrium exchange rate and basic economic factors. By econometric analysis, we find that domestic investment, economic growth, usage effect of foreign investment and foreign trade are the long term determinative factors of RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The analytic outcome indicates that RMB exchange rate has entered into the relative steady development phase. In future reform, the floating bands of RMB exchange rate should be extended so as to fully reflect the trait of the managed floating of RMB exchange rate.

关 键 词：人民币 均衡汇率 基本经济因素 汇率水平 实证分析 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]