中国现代气候变化的规律及未来情景预测  

Pattern and Cause of Current Climate Change in China and Prediction of Climate Scenarios

作　　者：李海涛[1] 于贵瑞[1] 袁嘉祖[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理研究所,北京100101 [2]北京林业大学

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2003年第4期1-4,共4页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新工程主干科学计划子课题CX10G-E01-02-01资助

摘　　要：20世纪50年代以来,由于受太阳周期活动、地球和天体运动、地壳运动、温室气体的温室效应、气溶胶的冷却效应、大气环流变化、海温变化、冬夏季风减弱和破坏森林等对气候变化的综合影响,我国年平均气温已升高0 68℃,北方最低气温升高0 24℃;全国年降水量减少了23 2mm,北方减幅大于南方。经模拟预测,从1987年开始的气候变暖将持续到2015年,2016年将转入低温期,2039年又将转入高温期;到2020年全国气温将升高1 68℃,西北地区升高2 2℃,南方年降水量增加28mm,北方没有变化;2030年海平面升高5 3～14 2cm,气候将更加干旱。The annual mean air temperature in China had increased about 068℃ since 1950's due to the contemporary climate changes, such as the sunspot cycles, the movement of the earth and celestial bodies, movement of earth's crust, greenhouse effects, cooling effects of aerosol, the change of global circulation, the change of seawater temperature, monsoon of winter and summer, deforestation, etc. The minimum air temperature in Northern China had increased 024℃. The annual precipitation all over the country was declined by 232mm. The amount of declined precipitation was more in North China than in South China. The simulated results show that the current warm period would last until 2015. The climate would turn into cold period from 2016, and be back to warm period in 2039. In 2020, the whole air temperature in China would increase by 1.68℃. The air temperature in the North-Eastern China would increase by 22℃. The annual precipitation in South China would increase by 28mm, and there would be no change in North China. In 2030, the sea level would elevate 5.3～14.2cm, and the climate would become drier.

关 键 词：中国 气候变化 变化规律 情景预测 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]