泊松模型预测路基沉降  

Forecasting Embankment Settlement With Poission Model

作　　者：冯震[1] 祝海涛[1] 熊仲华[2] 

机构地区：[1]北方交通大学,北京100044 [2]防灾技术高等专科学校,北京燕郊101601

出　　处：《华东地质学院学报》2003年第4期364-366,共3页Journal of East China Geological Institute

基　　金：铁道部基金资助项目 (TJL0 30 0 1 )

摘　　要：路基沉降变形有其自身的规律性。本文根据路基沉降特征 ,结合泊松曲线特点 ,建立了路基沉降量随时间而变化的泊松曲线预测模型。结合具体工程实例 ,证实泊松曲线很好地反映了路基沉降过程中沉降量与时间的“S”形关系。最后指出 ,采用泊松模型进行路基沉降预测 ,建模所需实测数据不能太少 ,实测点数据越多 ,预测曲线越逼近实测曲线 ,预测精度也越高 ,从而得出有一定参考价值的结论。Embankment's settlement has its regular pattern.This paper based on the embankment settlement and Poission curve's character,builds the forecast model.Then the model has been used to forecast some project,the result prove Poission curve exactly reflect the 'S' relation between settlement and time.In the end,by using Poission model forecasting embankment settlement,the data required is the more,and the forecasting accuracy is better,and some valuable conclusion are drawn.

关 键 词：路基沉降 泊松模型 沉降预测 

分 类 号：TU431[建筑科学—岩土工程]