华北地区地震短期综合预测方法研究  

Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

作　　者：平建军[1] 张永仙[2] 张清荣[1] 刘素英[1] 陈建国[1] 黄万发[1] 米雪梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,石家庄050021 [2]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《中国地震》2003年第4期416-424,共9页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目 (2 0 0 1BA6 0 1B0 1 0 1 0 4 )

摘　　要：在对华北地区 114项骨干前兆观测资料进行地震短期异常前兆信息量提取与计算基础上 ,结合华北地区地质构造、地震活动、地壳厚度 ,特别是现今动力学环境因子等因素 ,研究了华北地区地震短期异常前兆信息量的时、空演化特征及其与地震的关系 ,给出了华北地区MS≥ 5地震短期综合预测的指标和方法。经R值评分检验表明 ,该方法具有一定的地震预测效果。Based on the extraction and calculation of precursory information magnitude of earthquake short-term anomaly for 114 items of main observational data in the North China region, and consideration the factors such as geological structures, seismic activities, crustal thickness, nowadays geodynamics condition in the North China region, this paper studied the space-time evolutional characteristics of precursory information magnitude of earthquake short-term anomaly and its relation with seismicity in the North China region, and gave out the index and method of short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M ≥5.0 in the North China region. Through inspection of R value, it shows that the method has a certain effect on earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：华北地区 地震短期异常前兆信息量 信息场 演化特征 综合预测方法 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]