山东省农村人均消费性支出的动态回归模型  

Dynamic-regression model of per capital annual expenditure on consumption in Shandong countryside

作　　者：黄玉林[1] 杨丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东轻工业学院数理科学系,山东济南250100 [2]山东轻工业学院经济管理学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《山东轻工业学院学报（自然科学版）》2003年第4期79-82,共4页Journal of Shandong Polytechnic University

摘　　要：利用山东省1978-2001年农村经济指标的数据资料,以人均纯收入和实际利率或名义利率为解释变量,建立山东省农村人均消费性支出的动态回归模型,模型的拟合和预测效果很好,预测值和实际值基本相符,从而动态回归模型能较好地反映山东省农村人均消费性支出、人均纯收入和利率在时间上的动态关系。With the historical economical data of Shandong countryside from 1978 to 2001 and the percapital annual net income,real interest rate of nominal interest rate as predicting factors,two dynamic-regression models were established for per capital annual expenditure on consumption in Shandong countryside.The forecasting value basically agrees with the actual value,and is thus expressive of the dynamic-relationship of per capital annual expenditure on consumption,per capital annual net income, and real interest rate or nominal interest rate in terms of time.

关 键 词：山东 1978—2001年 农村经济指标 人均消费性支出 动态回归模型 农民收入 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] F327.52