台风Fitow降雨的数值预报试验  

A NUMERICAL PREDICTION EXPERIMENT OF TRACK ANDHEAVY RAINFALL ROUND ABOUT TYPHOON FITOW

作　　者：李江南[1] 王安宇[1] 侯尔滨[2] 李国丽[1] 何夏江 彭涛勇 曾沁 

机构地区：[1]中山大学大气科学系,广东广州510275 [2]澳门地球物理暨气象局 [3]广东省中心气象台,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带海洋学报》2004年第1期16-24,共9页Journal of Tropical Oceanography

基　　金：科技部社会公益研究专项(2001DIA20026)

摘　　要：用MM5对热带气旋Fitow(2001)的登陆过程进行了成功的预报,特别是对台风暴雨中心的位置和降雨量的预报与实况相当吻合。敏感性试验表明,华南地形对本次台风登陆过程中心气压和位置的变化没有明显的影响,但对台风低压北侧还是有一定的阻挡填塞作用,尤其是对24h累计的降水量有明显的增幅作用,而华南地形的这些影响主要是由南岭山脉所造成的。由于南岭山脉的阻挡,使南来的暖湿气流强迫抬升,促进了对流活动和降水系统的发展,最终造成台风降雨量明显加强,其增幅达30%。Landing process of typhoon Fitow (200114) was successfully forecast by MM5 models. In particular, the predicted position and precipitation of heavy rainfall center were well accordant with actuality. The sensitivity experiments showed that terrain had little influence on the position and pressure of the typhoon center, but had a significant effect on the intensity and distribution of the rainfall of typhoon Fitow. The Nanling mountain, forcing the south warm and moist air to rise, promoted the development of convection movement and rainfall system and enhanced the precipitation evidently, with an amplitude up to 30%.

关 键 词：MM5 Fitow 台风降雨 南岭山脉 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]