中国环保技术装备市场预测  

Prediction on the Market of Technology Equipment of Environment Protection of China

作　　者：孙东峰[1] 王凯 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]张家口市环境保护研究所,张家口075000

出　　处：《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》2004年第1期56-61,共6页Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences

摘　　要：采用政策上的定性预测、经验预测和二次平滑指数法对我国"十五"期间环保技术装备市场进行了预测,预测的项目为环保总投资和环保技术装备投资。政策上的定性预测表明,21世纪初期环保技术装备市场将发生较大变化。二次平滑指数预测法和经验预测法的结果非常接近,表明"十五"期间,我国环保投资总额将达到7739.17亿元人民币,其中技术装备市场为3095.65亿元人民币。The qualitative analysis on the basis of policy, experience prediction on the basis of the former investigation of environment protection industry and the prediction of the second smooth index are used to predict the total investment of environment protection and the technology equipment market capacity in the next five years.The qualitative analysis expounds that great changes will take place in the market of technology equipment of environment protection in the early 21st century. The results of the model of Brown and experience prediction are very similar, indicating that the total investment of environment protection will amount to RMB 773.9 billion, of which technology equipment market is RMB 309.5 billion.The qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis make the prediction more scientific.

关 键 词：环保总投资 环保技术装备投资 二次平滑指数预测 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]