青藏高原北部地区7级强震的有序网络特征及其预测研究  

Ordered network feature of M≥7 earthquakes and its prediction in northern part of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

作　　者：门可佩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京气象学院,南京210044

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2003年第4期765-771,共7页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：南京气象学院科研基金(LW03)资助.

摘　　要：　青藏高原北部地区7级强震具有显著的有序性,根据翁文波信息预测理论分析讨论了本区7级强震信息有序网络结构特征,并据此对未来强震进行预测:下次7级强震可能发生在2006～2007年.研究结果表明,有序网络结构可能是大地震形成的一种机制.The strong earthquakes with M≥7 possess outstanding orderliness in time since 1700 in Northern part of Qinghai-Xizang plateau, and some are ordered on space. Based on the information forecast theory of Weng Wen-bo, we discuss the temporal orderliness, commensurability and its network structure. On these grounds, the author make prediction: the next M≥7 earthquake will be pobably occur during 2006～2007 in this region. The results show that the formation mechanism of strong earthquakes is characterized by network featurees.

关 键 词：青藏高原北部地区 信息有序性 网络特征 强震预测 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]